MoneyQ 投資理財討論區 > 馬克・墨比爾斯博士對於短線市場震盪的看法

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anzuanzu

05-25 2006, 08:11

馬克・墨比爾斯博士對於短線市場震盪的看法
我們認為市場震盪是因為金磚四國等新興國家短線的漲幅過鉅，而且上漲動能來自於多頭氣氛衍生的追高熱錢，所以現階段面臨較大的獲利出場壓力。但是，考量許多高品質企業合理的股價水準後，我們並不認為現階段離開新興市場是明智之舉；相反地，在市場連日修正之後，我們反而看到許多逢低買進的機會。就國家別來看，股價偏高的印度股市的確是我們減碼的對象；但整體的新興市場的展望仍然非常正面樂觀，並非有泡沫化的危機。
國際金融市場當然也隱含著一些投資風險，諸如︰美國利率揚升、美元貨幣貶值、與商品價格回落等。不過，美國聯準會調升利率的舉措已經持續兩年，市場應該已經具備充分的預期與防禦性；其次，亞洲貨幣兌美元的匯價已經相較理論價格低估一段時間，適度升值幾乎是不可避免的。而亞洲貨幣升值也將有助支撐內需經濟擴張與原物料價格不墬，實屬利多的市場趨勢；再者，雖然原物料價格頻頻被預期應該向下修正，短線也出現比較大的震盪，但是對於許多毛利空間寬廣的原物料類股而言，商品價格的修正並不會造成過度負面的影響。舉例來說，巴西最大能源商Petrobras生產製造的成本相當低，縱使國際油價跌到每桶30美元的價位，這家公司依然能夠獲利無虞。
雖然新興市場與原物料價格短線的漲勢，不可諱言有受到部分熱錢的吹捧，但是這絕對跟2000年的網通股泡沫不同。當時人們不斷投入資金到一些沒有獲利、也無法配發股利的公司；但是現在新興市場的成長與出口卻異常紮實。
至於巴西出現黑幫暴動的消息，老實說，這實在不是什麼新鮮事！所有巴西股市的投資人，早已將巴西都市暴動與犯罪的惡名納入風險衡量，所以並非意料之外的衝擊。反倒是巴西警政機關這次將黑幫組織分化的企圖與努力，吸引我們的注意與肯定。

Mark Mobius on recent market volatility – May 18, 2006

It is our view that stock markets in BRIC countries have simply taken a much-need breather after a strong run-up, much of it driven by momentum buying. But given the reasonable level of valuations for a number of high-quality companies, we still cannot justify exiting any of these markets. In fact, we see the correction of recent days as an opportunity to buy further. True, we are relatively underweight India, where the market rise has been particularly sharp, but we do not believe that stock markets in BRIC countries represent a bubble that is about to burst. We are quite sanguine about their prospects.

There are some worries, of course. These include: higher U.S. interest rates, a weaker U.S. dollar and a pullback in commodity prices. Taking each of these factors in turn, U.S. interest rates have been moving higher for close to two years now and have already been largely discounted as a factor by the markets. As for a weaker U.S. dollar, one must not forget that Asian currencies have been undervalued for some time and that some sort of revaluation seems inevitable. Indeed, such a revaluation could help support the development of Asian countries』 domestic economies; and, finally, the inflated price of commodities. A lot of people have been saying that prices need to come down, and some correction is to be expected. But the margins are just so high that companies such as Brazil』s Petrobras can live very comfortably with oil prices as low as $30 per barrel. And while it is certainly true that the run up in a number of asset classes is momentum driven, the situation is very different from the tech bubble of the late 1990s, when investors poured money into a huge number of companies that had no earnings and paid no dividends.
As for the violence that has struck Brazil in recent days, here too there is nothing new! As investors, violence and crime in Brazil』s cities is something we have long taken into account. We view with interest the latest efforts by the authorities to crack down on the gangs that operate out of the country』s prisons by moving their ring leaders to facilities further away from the main flashpoints.

鬼魅

05-25 2006, 08:26

好文好文
今年亞洲經過上次金融風暴之後
銀行體系更加健全更能經得起摧殘

這次的打擊!!是一個很好的學習機會
更是增加經驗值.位以後財富累積作準備!!

鬼魅